As ever, if you do not wish to read all of this, selections are summarised at the end.
Welcome back, old friends and new, those of you who were with this blog a few years back will remember it was profitable and hopefully you found it insightful. You know the drill, the best 4 days (would 3 be better?) in sport, start Tuesday, 11th March 2025.
The weather in Cheltenham has been fairly wet today, it shouldn’t be enough to change the going tomorrow good-to-soft (it should actually be that tomorrow)… as to the mood music ahead of it all, it’s all about the 4-timer. Will we see it tomorrow, or will we have another Annie Power drama or worse, a full on collapse before we even get going.
Speaking of which, let’s turn to the Supreme.
13:20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, traditionally the opening race of the Cheltenham Festival, is a Grade 1 National Hunt hurdle race open to horses aged four and older. Run over a distance of approximately 2 miles and 87 yards (2 miles and ½ furlong), it has long been a showcase for emerging talent in hurdling. The 2025 edition, scheduled for March 11, has been renamed the Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in honor of the late jockey Michael O’Sullivan, who tragically passed away in February 2025 following a fall at Thurles.
2025 Confirmed Runners and Riders:
| Horse | Jockey |
| Funiculi Funicula | Brian Hayes |
| Irancy | Mark Walsh |
| Karbau | Sean O’Keefe |
| Karniquet | Danny Mullins |
| Kopek Des Bordes | Paul Townend |
| Romeo Coolio | Jack Kennedy |
| Salvator Mundi | Patrick Mullins |
| Sky Lord | Darragh O’Keefe |
| Tripoli Flyer | Jonathan Burke |
| Tutti Quanti | Harry Cobden |
Notable Trends and Statistics:
• Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged five or six, indicating a strong trend favoring horses in this age bracket.
• Last Run: 10 of the last 12 winners had won their previous race before competing in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Additionally, 10 out of 12 winners had raced within the last 66 days prior to the event.
• Betting Favorites: While favorites have a reasonable record, only four of the last 12 winners were the starting favorites or joint favorites, suggesting that while market leaders are often competitive, outcomes can be unpredictable.
• Trainer Success: Willie Mullins has been particularly successful in this race, securing seven victories since 1995 with horses like Tourist Attraction (1995), Ebaziyan (2007), Champagne Fever (2013), Vautour (2014), Douvan (2015), Klassical Dream (2019), and Appreciate It (2021).
Past Winners and Starting Prices (2015-2024):
| Year | Winner | Starting Price |
| 2024 | Slade Steel | 6/1 |
| 2023 | Marine Nationale | 9/2 |
| 2022 | Constitution Hill | 9/4 Fav |
| 2021 | Appreciate It | 8/11 Fav |
| 2020 | Shishkin | 6/1 |
| 2019 | Klassical Dream | 6/1 |
| 2018 | Summerville Boy | 9/1 |
| 2017 | Labaik | 25/1 |
| 2016 | Altior | 4/1 |
| 2015 | Douvan | 2/1 Fav |
The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle often serves as a springboard for future champions. Notably, winners like Altior (2016) and Shishkin (2020) transitioned successfully to novice chasing, subsequently winning the Arkle Challenge Trophy in their following seasons. Similarly, Constitution Hill, after his 2022 victory, went on to claim the Champion Hurdle in 2023, underscoring the race’s reputation for highlighting top-class talent.
Turning to our fancies, Kopek Des Bordes, a five-year-old bay gelding foaled on February 4, 2020, has rapidly ascended the ranks in National Hunt racing. Sired by No Risk At All out of the mare Miss Berry, he is a half-brother to six jumps winners, including the Grade 1 chaser Utopie Des Bordes. Currently trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Monabeg Investments Limited, Kopek Des Bordes boasts an unblemished record, having won all three of his starts to date.
His career commenced with a notable victory in a National Hunt flat race at Fairyhouse over 2 miles on heavy ground in March 2024. Transitioning to hurdles, he secured a win in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown over 2 miles on yielding ground in December 2024. His most impressive performance came in February 2025, when he dominated the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown, winning by 13 lengths on soft ground.
Timeform has assigned Kopek Des Bordes a rating of 154P, placing him 5 lb clear at the top of this season’s novice hurdle rankings—a notably high figure ahead of the Cheltenham Festival. The last horse to enter the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle with a higher pre-race Timeform rating was Altior, rated 155p, who won in 2015.
Trainer Willie Mullins has expressed immense confidence in Kopek Des Bordes, labeling him as his “banker” bet for the Cheltenham Festival. Mullins was particularly impressed by the gelding’s performance at the Dublin Racing Festival, where he effortlessly distanced himself from a strong field.
In the upcoming Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, Kopek Des Bordes is the clear favorite, with odds around 4/5. His primary competitors include Workahead, priced at 15/2, and Romeo Coolio at 7/1.
The primary selection is the fav, sometimes it’s easier to just accept what they have done is worthy and back accordingly.
Turning to our second-play, Tripoli Flyer for the local, Fegal O’Brien yard, is a worthy each-way at a big price.
Tripoli Flyer began his racing journey in National Hunt flat races, making his debut at Chepstow on October 31, 2023, where he finished fifth. He secured his first victory at Lingfield on January 21, 2024, in a National Hunt flat race over 2 miles on standard to slow ground. Transitioning to hurdles, he made an immediate impact, winning a novice hurdle at Market Rasen over 2 miles and 125 yards on soft ground by an impressive 29 lengths on November 27, 2024. He continued his winning streak with victories at Musselburgh on February 2, 2025, and at Kempton Park on February 22, 2025, where he won a Grade 2 hurdle over 2 miles on good to soft ground by 7.5 lengths
Notably, that last run, which was tasty on the clock, was on soft ground and the juice in the surface today (and no doubt some watering tomorrow) will play into the runners hands.
Selections
Kopek Des Bordes – Evens (1/1) – 4pt win
Tripoli Flyer 25/1 1pt ew
14:00 – Arkle Chase
The Arkle Challenge Trophy, commonly referred to as the Arkle Chase, is one of the premier Grade 1 novice steeplechases at the Cheltenham Festival. Open to novice chasers aged five and older, the race is run over approximately two miles (3,219 meters) on the Old Course at Cheltenham, featuring 13 fences. Named after the legendary racehorse Arkle, this contest has long been a proving ground for future stars in the two-mile chasing division. First held in 1969, it remains one of the most prestigious races of the Festival’s opening day.
2025 Confirmed Runners and Jockeys
| Horse | Jockey |
| Majborough | Paul Townend |
| Only By Night | Rachael Blackmore |
| Ballyburn | Davy Russell |
| Firefox | Jack Kennedy |
| Slade Steel | Harry Cobden |
| Inthepocket | Nico de Boinville |
| Impaire Et Passe | Danny Mullins |
| Mystical Power | Mark Walsh |
| Tullyhill | Sean O’Keeffe |
| Jeriko Du Reponet | Jonathan Burke |
Key Trends and Statistics
• Age: The race has historically favored younger horses, with 11 of the last 12 winners aged six or seven. This suggests that runners within this age bracket hold a statistical advantage.
• Betting Market: Nine of the last 12 winners started as the favorite, showing a strong trend towards well-backed horses. Moreover, 10 of the last 12 winners came from the top three in the betting market.
• Last Run Form: Recent form is crucial—11 of the last 12 winners won their previous race before heading to the Arkle, highlighting the importance of arriving at Cheltenham in peak condition.
• Trainer Records: Willie Mullins has been particularly dominant in this race, securing victories with stars like Duc De Genievres (2019), Footpad (2018), and Un De Sceaux (2015).
Previous Winners and Their Starting Prices (2015-2024)
| Year | Winner | SP (Starting Price) |
| 2024 | Gaelic Warrior | 2/1 Fav |
| 2023 | El Fabiolo | 11/10 Fav |
| 2022 | Edwardstone | 5/2 Fav |
| 2021 | Shishkin | 4/9 Fav |
| 2020 | Put The Kettle On | 16/1 |
| 2019 | Duc De Genievres | 5/1 |
| 2018 | Footpad | 5/6 Fav |
| 2017 | Altior | 1/4 Fav |
| 2016 | Douvan | 1/4 Fav |
| 2015 | Un De Sceaux | 4/6 Fav |
Race Significance & Future Prospects
The Arkle Chase has long been a stepping stone to greater success in the two-mile chase division. Several previous winners, such as Altior (2017) and Shishkin (2021), have progressed from winning this race to landing the Queen Mother Champion Chase in the following season. The race is renowned for showcasing potential superstars, and a strong performance here often indicates future dominance over two miles.
With the 2025 renewal promising a highly competitive field, this year’s Arkle Chase is shaping up to be another thrilling spectacle. Recent trends suggest that six or seven-year-olds, horses with strong recent form, and those prominent in the betting market are statistically well-placed to challenge for victory. As always, class, jumping ability, and stamina will be crucial in determining this year’s champion.
Turning to the Fav, Majborough, a five-year-old bay gelding foaled on April 6, 2020, has rapidly ascended the ranks in National Hunt racing. Sired by Martinborough out of the mare Janimone, he is trained by the esteemed Willie Mullins and owned by Mr. John P. McManus.
Career Highlights and Form:
• Triumph Hurdle Victory: Majborough announced his arrival on the big stage with a commanding win in the Triumph Hurdle at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, showcasing his potential among top-tier novices.
So, the Fav, would be the selection but the price isn’t much at 8/15. I will double it with the fav in the opener, otherwise it is a no-bet race.
Kopek Des Bordes / Majborough – double –
14:40 – Ultima Handicap
We will shorten the write-ups where necessary and for the Ultima we have 3 plays, each-way.
Katae Dori 15/2 1pt ew
Victtorino 22/1 0.5pt ew
Myretown 12/1 0.75pt ew
15:20 – Mares Hurdle
Surely the crowd will not boo, Lossiemouth, should she take this, many felt she should be racing, 40 mins later in the day (in the Champion Hurdle) but I do not see her being competitive against the 3 at the top of the market. Whilst, it weakens the main event of day 1 it ensures this race is a stiff challenge. On paper, she is too good and plainly the pick, a fall at Leopardstown last time out however, cannot be dismissed.
I will have Lossiemouth in multiples but she is not a single play on the day (unless she drifted towards evens around 4/5 etc)
We will back, the Skelton horse at a big price each-way, ran well at Cheltenham when last at the course in December and at Weatherby in November ran a time that would be in the mix with those towards the top of the market.
Take No Chances 25/1 0.5pt ew
16:00 – Champion Hurdle
The race of the season? The greatest hurdler ever seen, who despite a few knocks, is seemingly in better form than ever before, surely it’s all about Constitution Hill, the noise out of the Elliot yard is strong for Brighterdaysahead but I’m not having the mare in this race.
2025 Champion Hurdle Preview
Introduction
The Champion Hurdle is the pinnacle race for two-mile hurdlers and one of the most prestigious events at the Cheltenham Festival . Run on the opening day each year since 1927, it has a rich history and is regarded as the championship contest for hurdlers in Britain and Ireland . Many legendary horses have etched their names into Champion Hurdle history – multiple winners like Hatton’s Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War, See You Then, and Istabraq each dominated their eras with three victories apiece . The race’s roll of honour features some of jump racing’s all-time greats, underscoring its importance. Winning the Champion Hurdle not only brings a handsome prize but often crowns the best hurdler of the season, with winners frequently returning to defend their title or later making their mark as legends of the sport.
Confirmed Runners and Jockeys (2025)
Seven top-class hurdlers have been confirmed for the 2025 Champion Hurdle, each partnered by a leading jockey . This year’s field sees a much-anticipated clash between established champions and emerging stars. Notably, 2023 Champion Hurdle hero Constitution Hill returns after missing last year, set to face State Man, the 2024 winner looking to defend his crown . The presence of Brighterdaysahead, an in-form mare, adds further intrigue as she takes on the seasoned geldings. Below is the full list of runners and their riders for the 2025 edition:
• Burdett Road – Sam Twiston-Davies
• Constitution Hill – Nico de Boinville
• King Of Kingsfield – Danny Gilligan
• State Man – Paul Townend
• Winter Fog – Brian Hayes (will set the pace alongside King Of Kingsfield)
• Brighterdaysahead – Jack Kennedy
• Golden Ace – Lorcan Williams
Each contender brings strong form into the race. Nicky Henderson’s Constitution Hill is an unbeaten superstar returning to reclaim his title, while Willie Mullins’ State Man comes off a solid season, including a repeat win in the Irish Champion Hurdle . Gordon Elliott saddles two runners: Brighterdaysahead, who twice defeated State Man in Ireland, and King Of Kingsfield, likely deployed as a front-running pacemaker to aid his stablemate . Rounding out the field are Burdett Road, a notable handicap winner who likes to race prominently, and Golden Ace, last year’s Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle victress stepping up to open company . This select field sets the stage for a high-quality renewal of the Champion Hurdle.
Last 10 Champion Hurdle Winners
Recent Champion Hurdle results illustrate both the dominance of elite hurdlers and the occasional big upset. The table below lists the last ten winners (2015–2024) of the Champion Hurdle, along with their starting prices (SP) at the off. Notably, many recent winners were heavily favored in the betting, reflecting the race’s tendency to reward the top-rated contenders, though surprise outcomes can and do occur .
| Year | Winner | Starting Price (SP) |
| 2024 | State Man | 2/5 Fav (0.4–1) |
| 2023 | Constitution Hill | 4/11 Fav (0.36–1) |
| 2022 | Honeysuckle | 8/11 Fav (0.73–1) |
| 2021 | Honeysuckle | 11/10 Fav (1.1–1) |
| 2020 | Epatante | 2/1 Fav (2.0–1) |
| 2019 | Espoir d’Allen | 16/1 (16.0–1) |
| 2018 | Buveur d’Air | 4/6 Fav (0.67–1) |
| 2017 | Buveur d’Air | 5/1 (5.0–1) |
| 2016 | Annie Power | 5/2 Fav (2.5–1) |
| 2015 | Faugheen | 4/5 Fav (0.8–1) |
Table: Champion Hurdle winners from 2015 to 2024, with their SP at race time . “Fav” indicates the starting favorite.
From this recent history, a few trends emerge. Most winners were well-fancied – seven of the last ten started as the outright favorite in the betting, and another (Honeysuckle in 2021) was a close second-favorite. The only major longshot in the past decade was Espoir d’Allen in 2019 at 16/1, who stunned punters with an upset victory . This pattern shows that while shocks can happen, the Champion Hurdle often goes to a highly regarded horse with proven form.
Key Statistics and Trends
Analyzing the Champion Hurdle trends over the past 10–15 years reveals a profile of the typical winner and factors that signal a strong contender. Here are some key statistics and trends:
• Age Matters: The prime age for Champion Hurdle winners is between 6 and 8 years old. Nine of the last ten winners fell in this age range . Five-year-old winners are rare – prior to Espoir d’Allen’s triumph as a 5-year-old in 2019, the previous one was Katchit in 2008 . No horse older than 9 has won in recent decades, underlining that youthful legs tend to prevail.
• Proven Top-Class Form: Almost every recent winner had already proven themselves at the highest level. 9 out of the last 10 winners had a Grade 1 hurdle victory on their resume before winning the Champion Hurdle . This underscores that the race is usually won by an established Grade 1 performer rather than a dark horse. Likewise, 9 of the last 10 winners were coming off a win in their previous race , indicating that current form is paramount. In other words, a horse arriving in winning form, especially at Grade 1 level, is a very positive sign.
• Lightly Raced but Experienced: Successful Champion Hurdle horses tend to have a relatively light hurdling career behind them, often with no more than 12 hurdle starts prior to Cheltenham . This suggests the ideal contender is seasoned enough to handle the big occasion but still on the upgrade (for example, Constitution Hill had only a handful of runs when winning in 2023). They are neither over-campaigned nor lacking in experience – striking a balance between raw talent and racecraft.
• Highest Ratings: Winners are typically among the top-rated in the field. In fact, 9 of the last 10 winners were rated within 8 pounds of the highest-rated hurdler (Racing Post Ratings) in that year’s field . This trend means we should look closely at the horses with the best ratings – genuine Champion Hurdle contenders usually already have lofty ratings that reflect their ability. It’s rare for a significantly lower-rated outsider to improve enough to win this race.
• Trainer and Jockey Dominance: Certain trainers have an exceptional record in this race. Nicky Henderson is the all-time leading Champion Hurdle trainer with nine victories to date , including recent winners like Buveur d’Air (2017–18), Epatante (2020), and Constitution Hill (2023). He seeks a record-extending tenth win this year with Constitution Hill . Willie Mullins has also been very successful, saddling four different Champion Hurdle winners since 2015 (Faugheen, Annie Power, Hurricane Fly, and State Man) and consistently fielding a strong team. On the jockey front, experience matters: top riders such as Ruby Walsh, Barry Geraghty, and Rachael Blackmore have all tasted Champion Hurdle glory in recent years. A cool head in the saddle can make the difference in a pressure race like this.
• Betting Insights: As noted, the favorite has a strong record, winning 7 of the last 10 renewals . Punters often identify the leading contender correctly in this championship race. However, one should not discount horses at mid-range odds who have the right profile – e.g. Buveur d’Air won at 5/1 in 2017 when overlooked by some, and an unfancied 16/1 shot caused a major upset in 2019. Generally, a single-figure odds horse with solid Grade 1 credentials is a wise starting point when looking for the likely winner.
• Other Notable Trends: Interestingly, a few recent winners triumphed without a prep run in the same calendar year – three winners in the past decade won the Champion Hurdle as their first start after New Year’s Day (two of those trained by Henderson) . This shows that a horse can be kept fresh after a busy autumn and still deliver on the big day. Also, mares have had increased success lately: only six mares had won the Champion Hurdle in the race’s long history up to 2020, but we’ve seen three female winners in the last decade – Annie Power (2016), Epatante (2020), and Honeysuckle (2021 & 2022) . The 7 lb sex allowance for mares, combined with exceptional talent, has made top mares very competitive in recent years. In 2025, the presence of mares like Brighterdaysahead and Golden Ace will test that trend against the geldings.
Significance of the Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle holds special significance in jump racing as the definitive test for elite hurdlers. It is not only a prestigious Grade 1 title in its own right, but it also often signals the emergence of a truly top-class hurdler. Winners of this race frequently go on to confirm their greatness in subsequent seasons, sometimes winning multiple Champion Hurdles and becoming household names. For example, horses like Istabraq, See You Then, and Honeysuckle all won this race more than once, instantly carving out a legacy as all-time greats of hurdling .
Constitution Hill wins but is one for the multiples (will this land the 4-fold the world is on?) but for us, we will back State Man each-way.
State Man 11/1 1pt ew
16:30 – Fred Winter Handicap
If the 4-fold has landed, everything will be right with the world. If not, we will pick ourselves up and go again. We will back the following:
Stencil 9/2 1.5pt win
Liam Swagger 11/1 0.75pt ew
Teriferma 22/1 0.5pt ew
17:00 – Royal Hunt Handicap
Haiti Colouers 4/1 2pt win
Transmission 9/2 2pt win
Resplendent Grey 17/2 1pt ew
Hopefully the singles do the business for day, 1.
Multiples
Kopek, Maj, Lossiemouth, Constitution Hill 4-fold 8/1 2pt win
Kopek, Maj double 5/2 1.5pt win
Kopek, Maj, Lossiemouth treble 5/1 1pt win
Good luck.
SELECTIONS SUMMARY
13:20 – Kopek 1/1 4pt win & Tripoli Flyer 25/1 1pt ew
14:00 – no singles, just multiples (see above)
14:40 – Katae Dori 15/2 1pt ew
Victtorino 22/1 0.5pt ew
Myretown 12/1 0.75pt ew
15:20 – Take No Chances 25/1 0.5pt ew (see multiples above)
16:00 – State Man 11/1 1pt ew (see multiples above)
16:40 – Stencil 9/2 1.5pt win
Liam Swagger 11/1 0.75pt ew
Teriferma 22/1 0.5pt ew
17:00 – Haiti Colouers 4/1 2pt win
Transmission 9/2 2pt win
Resplendent Grey 17/2 1pt ew
Horse Racing Selections 