Time to stare in the mirror and reflect, with another bet on Monday falling to the wayside, we are now 18 bets without a winner (2 places during that period) which would be fine, of course, this happens, but we need to review our staking method.
Simply put, we overreached at the back end of the month, overstaking and this led to us leaking profit.
The beauty of the trial process is that we get to handle and review matters like this, so let us dig in to what went on and crucially tidy it all up moving forward.
To begin, as of today we are 8 points in profit since 1 January 2021. (we ignored yesterday’s racing, only one race qualified and we would not have played anyway at the prices).
So, where were we, not to mourn but as a reminder of where we will soon again be, as of the 27th January we were sitting pretty on 44 points profit, with Assimilation having just gone in on the All-Weather at Lingfield at 8/1 (staking 1.5 PT win bet).
We then staked 45 points from 28th January until 1st February, leaking around 35 points in the process.
Saturday was a poor day, over-staking with a series of multiple point bets, i.e 2PT EW and above, with staking 24 points over 7 races, for a loss of 20 points.
On reviewing all bets 2pts and above we have had 17 bets of that kind for a loss of 29 points, notably as well none of the odds are above 9/1, averaging out at around 4/1.
This goes against where we have been successful with our average advised price of 13/1 and our average price of a bet that provides a return (35 returning bets to date) is also 13/1 (12.79 to be precise), even accounting for the 100/1 place and removing that (as it could be referred to as an outlier) the average odds of a returning bet is around 11/1.
Digging into those bets that provide a return yet further, where we have staked above 2PT EW, we have had 7 bets that were either a win or placed since 1 January 2021, for a total combined stake of 34 points (Average of 4.85 per bet – way above our normal average) for a return of a meagre 12 points profit.
It is, simply, not worth the risk, you are if anything over staking on the wrong selections at the wrong prices, it is clear successes throughout January were by ignoring the top of the market, finding value where others had not and exploiting that opportunity. In short, a handsome reminder that, piling in on selections where the market was correct or at least nearly correct is not going to be profitable in the long-term.
Hence, on reflection, the obvious conclusion is, to be wary about staking above 1.5PT EW and look to review in detail whether selections below 8/1 are really worth it…
Anyway, we move on, we are in profit, just about and throughout the remainder of February we will not stake more than 1.5PT EW on any selection (having staked 2.5 PT EW on I’m Available on Monday, it lost!).
Important to review and crunch the data, it after all does not lie.
That was cathartic, oh and we have some jumps racing today (finally) over at Warwick.
Warwick
14:00 – Not many with form in this race, hence a chance is taken on the relatively in-form Seamus Mullins and Ferny Knap who at 100/1 looks over priced and the same again for Gold Leader for the Twiston-Davies yard who is 50/1.
The race may well be set-up for those at the top of the market with Fantastic Lady of interest for Nicky Henderson, who seems to be the second-string in the race according to the market, a solid enough run, first time out, on heavy at the course, when finishing 4 of 17 could lead to a better performance today.
FANTASTIC LADY 8/1 1PT EW
FERNY KNAP 100/1 0.5PT EW
GOLD LEADER 50/1 0.5PT EW
15:05 – MOMMELLA stands out at the bottom of the weights for Harry Fry, a distance winner, when scoring on Boxing Day at Wincanton, proven on ground heavier than soft (as it will be today) she is expected to be the main threat to Zambella, on the hunt for a four-timer.
If the favourite is not on-form today, let us hope our selection is able to sit slightly off the pace and capitalise at the last few fences after a smooth ride by Darryl Jacob.
MOMELLA 7/1 1PT EW
15:40 – a ten-runner handicap hurdle, the legendary Rock on Fruity is of of interest, coming to life again at the grand old age of 12 last year, with commendable performances when winning at Sedgfield in March and twice at Kelso towards the end of the year.
If he can run to anything like those performance and/or to par of his performances post March last year, he will be in the mix and should not be 16/1
Keep an eye on Undersupervision for the Twiston-Davies yard, who if he were to drift could be of interest.
ROCK ON FRUITY 16/1 0.5PT EW
Kempton
17:25 – SANAADH a winner for us last time out on 12 January 2021 is a selection, drawn well from stall 5 and with Michael Wigham having worked wonders last time out, he has a 30% strike-rate with last time out winners and whilst this is a stiffer test today, up in class, he is down in the weights and poised for a good run.
SANAADH 9/1 1PT EW
Horse Racing Selections 