I decided it best to wait until post 9am today before reviewing and making selections, the weather it seems has held and the racing gods shined (although it is foggy as anything as I write) on us as Ascot and Haydock go ahead.
A solid day yesterday with Fizzy Feet winning at 11/1 for us and us getting the 1-2 in the race with Brian the Snail placing in second.
Sadly, over at Chelmsford in the evening, nothing worked out with Lord Riddiford rearing up as he left the stalls and unseating the rider…
As of this morning (pre-racing) we are 37 points in profit.
A full review will occur end of the month.
The blue line is the accumulative total and the yellow line represents the daily impact.
Ascot
12:40 – Plenty of newcomers today, hence who knows , however Blue Slate should not be 66/1, whilst the heaviest of the bunch at 11.4, the run at Leicester when winning over distance would set a stiff challenge for these.
BLUE SLATE 66/1 0.5PT EW
13:15 – The heavily fancied favourite, Roksana is worth watching, in a race without an each-way option, it is not for us at the prices.
13:50 – We go three-handed in this race, Kateson a winner last time out over Course and Distance for the Tom Lacey yard is the wrong price at 10/1.
Lightly squeeze should be favourite (current price 11/2), his performance when coming third at the track just before Christmas, sets a standard the others may struggle to contend with, Harry Fry has a nigh on 30% strike rate with last time out winners.
The Olly Murphy trained, I K Brunel is of interest, based upon the Newbury performance last time out, with the yard in form 20% strike consistently for the last month (and at 37% with Jockey A P Heskin on board) at 14/1 it is a small play.
KATESON 11/1 1PT EW
LIGHTLY SQUEEZE 11/2 2PT EW
I K BRUNEL 14/1 0.5PT EW
14:25 – A wide-open affair, FAVORITO BUCK’S for Paul Nicholls and ridden by Harry Cobden has everything in play for a big run (and it is Saturday, so Nicholls will just win it all as ever right?), the horse is a winner at distance (and at Ascot over shorter, his prominent style should suit.
FAVORITO BUCK’S 11/1 1PT EW
15:00 – CAPELAND a winner for us 2 weeks back, again for the Nicholls yard, is a selection, at 11/1 and at the same weight when successful at Wincanton, the price is all wrong (especially with the Ditcheat head-honcho at 38% strike rate in the last 14 days).
CAPELAND 14/1 1PT EW
15:35 – Clarence House Chase
Politologue may well have been the success story of 2020, victorious at the Festival before following it up in the Tingle Creek, a worthy favourite.
Defi Du Seuil, 2/5 at the off for Queen Mothers Champion Chase, the race Politologue won at the Festival, needs to bounce back, at 4/1 I could see why people may be interested, as it is now or never and it was not that long ago he performed wonders.
FIRST FLOW however is the selection, a front-running type, trained by Kim Bailey, let us hope he can get up alongside the favourite early, match strides and be in the mix at the conclusion.
FIRST FLOW 12/1 1.5PT EW
16:10 – TUPELO MISSISSIPPI for the Brian Ellison yard, needs to buck the trend for the trainer, as his horses are not quite running to form, however the figures set by the horse at Newcastle at the end of November (and on it’s prior two runs to that) would trouble the more fancied types in this race, let us hope we can forgive his last run at Uttoxeter and in the last at Ascot it finishes in the money for us.
TUPELO MISSISSIPPI 11/2 1PT EW
Haydock
Miraculously, Haydock goes ahead, it was definitely odds on with pundits and people nearby, to not happen earlier this week.
12:55 – Nothing in the first of note.
13:30 – NADA TO PRADA, is a strong fancy, performing to a better standard post having wind-surgery, his speed figures towards the end of 2020 on Heavy accumulated in a win at the track just before Christmas.
At 11/2 he is the wrong price (I would suggest he should be favourite around 2/1).
NADA TO PRADA 11/2 2PT EW
14:05 -Milvale is of interest, as the favourite, Hijack has a slight mark over him due to Nicky Henderson having a terrible record over course and distance. Clyne would be of note but for the weight (and slight bridesmaid style of his recent performances).
Milvale 11/2 1.5PT EW
14:40 – Red Hot, Festival fancy Royale Pagaille is favourite, giving away however bags of weight, hence he needs to be taken on (should he win, he will blow up the Festival ante-post markets).
LAMANVER PIPPIN however at the bottom of the weights (10.4 a full stone and a half lighter than the fave), performed well, placing at both the October and November meetings at HQ, a dour effort at Chepstow can be forgiven before Christmas, let us hope he continues to turn the fortunes round fo the Tizzard yard (who have had a tough 2020).
LAMANVER PIPPIN 10/1 1PT EW
15:15 – A watching brief in the New One Unibet Hurdle, Buveur D’aAir returning, can Nicky bring him back to anything like his old self?
15:50 – Le Couer Net and Templehills are the wrong prices, the latter for Nigel Twiston-Davies who’s yard is in form over the last few weeks.
Le Couer Net 10/1 1PT EW
Templehills 14/1 0.5PT EW
Taunton
14:10 – Rock the Kasbah in the International Meeting at Cheltenham, when coming second to Cogry, ran to a very high level, whilst I think the favourite, Yala Enki is worthy, at 5/4 I would not be getting involved however with the Welsh National only a couple of weeks back.
ROCK THE KASBAH 8/1 1PT EW
14:45 – JOLLY’S CRACKED IT at the bottom of the weights, the elder statesman showed plenty at Sandown to like in Class 1 company on Tingle Creek day. This is a far lesser grade affair and if running to that standard should be in the mix at the end.
Air Horse One a course and distance winner, pulled up before Christmas at Ascot, looked great when placing at Taunton at the end of November, let us hope he can at least do the same again today, again.
JOLLY’S CRACKED IT 7/1 1.5PT EW
AIR HORSE ONE 12/1 0.5PT EW
Horse Racing Selections 