Only one race yesterday and whilst the favourite departed after one fence, our selection backed at an average price of 45/1 (taking 50/1 pre 9am and 40/1 post 9am) ran as per his price and didn’t trouble the winner, Full Back.
Onto today, a better day than normal for a Wednesday with racing at Chepstow and Newbury of potential interest.
Newbury
13:25 – The Course and Distance winner, Funambule Sivola trained by Venetia Williams sits atop the market, current best price 7/4, with a decrease in form post Christmas and a strike rate of 14% (out of 29 runners) the price is wrong.
This is therefore a good opportunity for us to tool-up and take on those at the head of the market, the eye is drawn to the Fergal O’Brien trained, Golden Taipan, the yard has a 20% strike rate over the last 14 days and the horse has won over distance, after a frustrating latter part to 2020, his form in the early part, finishing second at Kempton would ensure he is in the hunt come the finish, could that be replicated today. Finally, the price is all wrong, 16/1 the night before is an insult.
Dostal Phil and Grey Diamond are of interest, seemingly the wrong price the night before, the later producing speed-figures at Ludlow in February of 2020 that would out-strip all of these, if he is on form and able to lead from the front, he may produce a pace that others cannot contend with.
The JP McManus, Dostal Phil runs well off a long break always having won or placed after a 100+ day break, he was last see in March 2020.
Golden Taipan 16/1 – NON RUNNER
Dostal Phil 8/1 0.5PT EW pre 9am and 7/1 0.5PT EW post 9am. (1PT EW IN TOTAL)
Grey Diamond 17/2 0.5PT EW pre 9am and 17/2 0.5PT EW post 9am. (1PT EW IN TOTAL
All the above at half-stakes pre 9am with a further price taken post 9am.
15:05 – The Mares’ Hurdle race, looks very well set-up for Panic Attack for the David Pipe yard but at 5/4 it is not a price to get interested in. Nothing however stands out, save as I will re-review if the price of Miss Heritage slightly drifts (currently 5/1).
Update @13:00 – MISS HERITAGE 11/2 2PT EW
15:35 – Le Boizelo is of interest for the in-form Robert Walford yard, whilst a small yard, he is currently at a 36% strike-rate over the last 14 days, with Harry Cobden, mocked up, they have a 24% strike rate when together.
At 10/1 it is the sort of price to get involved in,
LE BOIZELO 10/1 1PT EW
Chepstow
13:35 – EQUUS DANCER a distance winner, enjoys the ground, providing it remains soft rather than heavy, enjoyed two wins at Sedgfield in 2020 is favoured to give the odds-on favourite, Coconut Splash something to think of.
EQUUS DANCER 9/1 – NO BET – Race collapsed due to favourite being withdrawn, no EW so no bet.
14:40 – In what looks like a hot handicap hurdle, coming at the right time for David Pipe who has a 28% strike rate over the last 56 days, with the trainer at 20% over course and distance, he seems head and shoulders the selection over the current favourite Global Fame currently best priced 9/4.
The front-running style of Caswell Bay should not be discounted, well handicapped and with the horse enjoying his spins round Chepstow as a former course and distance winner.
First Lord De Cuet 10/3 3PT EW (PRICE TAKEN AT 9AM)
Caswell Bay (REVIEW AT 9AM) – price taken 17/2 post 9am 1PT EW (at time of writing 9/2)
Review post 9am completed…
Horse Racing Selections 