Good morning, the first month of the year is now starting to appear more prominently in the rear-view, we remain in our third-National Lockdown, with a shock in the Moscow Flyer in Ireland yesterday, won by Dreal Deal at 22/1.
Before we get going on today’s racing, let us now review our performance to date:
Betting Review (since 2 January 2021)
Total Profit & Loss: 38 points in profit.
Bets: 68 (average of roughly 5 bets a day, but Saturday racing skews this stat)
Winners: 9 (13% strike-rate)
Place: 9 (not including win portion)
A return (either win or place): 18 (a return on selections 26% of the time)
Losers: 50
Average points staked per selection: 1.5
Average selection odds: 17/1 (16.0)
Average odds of winning selection: 10/1 (9.0)
Average odds of selection that provides a return: 19/1 (18.0)Removing 100/1 place it is still 14/1 (13.0)
This equates to with 18.0 as our average value for a retuning selection – a 1/4 of 18.0 (1.5 x 3.5) = 5.25 points and at 1/5 of 18.0 (1.5 x 2.8) = 4.2 points or as an average across the pair (5.25 + 4.20) = 4.7 points returned every 2.6 selections.
All promising, with a review like the above to occur every couple of weeks with the rolling P&L to be provided every few days.
You will see from the above after 2 weeks of selections/data. a healthy/positive progression. The blue line indicating the accumulative total of all selections and the yellow line running below the daily impact (note reference to hundreds equates to points, i.e 380 along the left hand side is a reference to 38 points (where we are as of writing)).
As an update, I am also pleased to see I can get (and have been receiving) B.O.G via Fitzdares (if placed post 9am on the day of the race), due to account limitations these are one of the only who are offering me B.O.G. I will only record as per what I have taken/received, however it will now ensure I consider whether to bet pre: 9am on day of a race, will have to weigh-up if price will contract, if so may place at half-stakes night before and rest post 9am recording the average price, as we received the benefit last week of a few drifters (Felix and Sandaah) however missed out on a drift on Young Turk to 150/1 from 100/1 as taken (still a lovely price…)
Ayr
16:05 – In the final race of the day, we have a National Hunt Flat race, a Class 3 affair with plenty of debutants, it will be a watching brief with so many first-timers.
Wolverhampton (All-Weather)
18:10 – Rainbow Dreamer is at the top of the market for the in-form Alan King (currently 6/4), the Mark Johnston trained Mildenberger is the most likely challenger (11/4) according to the market.
Carnwennan is a small play, producing speed figures when last seen at Newcastle in Class 2 company that would trouble those previously mentioned if he runs true to form, in-fact in all bar 1 of his last 8 races, his figures would be of real interest against these rivals.
At time of writing he is 10/1 and whilst the Charlie Fellows yard is not in much form it fits our profile for a bet.
CARNWENNAN 10/1 1PT EW
18:40 – Another wide-open affair on the all-weather, Athmad is the stand-out on speed figures and for the in-form Ruth Carr (currently 11/4), he was favourite overnight before being usurped by Power of States for the Hugo Palmer yard whilst out of sorts when last seen out in Chelmsford, his speed figures throughout 2020 would be comparative to Athmad.
KASER is a fancy, doing some of his best work this time last year over course and distance, when winning and crucially with speed-figures of real interest, let us hope the flat effort when seen just after Christmas was a on-off and not the start of decline, he is drawn well and off a nice enough mark.
Home Before Dusk and Mythical Madness are simply plays because they are the wrong price and well drawn. We go mob-handed in this race hoping to upset whoever goes off favourite…
KASER 5/1 1PT EW
HOME BEFORE DUSK 9/1 1PT EW
MYTHICAL MADNESS 14/1 0.5PT EW
Horse Racing Selections 