A good week, profit and loss for the year to be updated tomorrow (we are up) and after a few barren days with racing cancelled and nothing yesterday of interest in the one race on the All-Weather, above Class 3.
Market Rasen
12:20 – nothing of interest in this race, Haul Away for Nicky Henderson is the wrong price but we have never seen him on Heavy so is a watching brief.
14:05 – The Alan King trained, Edwardstone, is rightful favourite but is giving away bags of weight (a stone-plus) to rivals, if he runs to form, he beats this field, but and we are always looking for a “but” when reviewing a race.
ROWLAND WARD and CROOKS PEAK are simply the wrong price, in a race skewed by the favourite, the latter trained by Dan Skelton who has a 28% strike-rate at the course and over this distance.
ROWLAND WARD 7/1 1PT WIN
CROOKS PEAK 11/1 1PT WIN
14:40 – Nothing of note, we will watch the favourite, On the Blind Side with interest after he secured some each-way money for us last weekend.
15:15– Grangee will be, deservedly so, the talk of Market Rasen today, trained by Willie Mullins (who won this last year), the Irish trainer is the first to send a horse over to GB post the third National Lockdown, we will however be taking her on, MISS LAMB a distance winner at Wetherby towards the end of 2020 should not be 28/1 and at the prices is a firm selection, let us hope her front-running style ensures she gets out and is hard to catch, the same is to be said for CHOSEN PORT trained by the in-form Olly Murphy (20%+ strike rate in the last 14 days), whilst both have something to find on the favourite, if she shows any sign of not having enjoyed the trip over, let’s hope ours are in the mix come the end.
MISS LAMB 28/1 0.5PT EW
CHOSEN PORT 20/1 0.5PT EW
Warwick
13:15 – Sky Pirate, last seen out in fantastic form at Cheltenham during the International meeting sits atop the market, however between the top pair I may just prefer Amoola Gold trained by Dan Skelton. A winner over distance and with the trainer having a 30% strike rate with Harry on board at the track and over race-type and distance the slightly bigger price would be the play in a match bet, especially as they have identical speed-figures.
DESTRIER at the top-of the weights has had two listless-races in a row, but produced figures in early November, when in class 1 company which would trouble the market favourites if this could be replicated, the key will be for him to get-out in front and set the pace, also trained by the Skelton yard let us hope we are in the race come the finish.
DESTRIER 14/1 0.5PT EW
13:50 – A three-horse race, it is Saturday and that means Paul Nicholls will likely hoover everything up, the odds on Next Destination is certainly primed to score, however with only two others to worry about they require further review. The Colin Tizzard yard has not had many winners of late, nothing in 2021 and 2020 was not much better with less than a 10% strike-rate his horse can all be ignored until an improvement at the yard. GOLAN FORTUNE is unsurprisingly our choice, the outsider of the field, with figures better than the favourite and at the wrong-price.
GOLAN FORTUNE 6/1 1PT WIN
14:25 – A very wider-open Hurdle race with plenty of interest ahead of the Festival. We will have 3 selections, ADRIMEL, this time last year ran speed-figures that would trouble this field, the Paul Nicholls trained Sending Love is to big a price at 14/1 and is therefore a selection, producing good speed-figures when last of 3 in a small-field at Sandown in December. Finally, Midnight River, a winner at Leicester last time-out produced again speed-figures which should put him further up the field than the market currently suggests.
ADRIMEL 7/1 1PT EW
SENDING LOVE 14/1 1PT EW
MIDNIGHT RIVER 9/1 1PT EW
15:00 – STORM CONTROL, is the selection in what should be a fun-watch with plenty of clues ahead of the Festival, our selection is looking for the hat-trick, winning at the International Meeting and prior to that at the November meeting, the clear stand-out in the race on form.
The front-running style of our selection, should suit the race and the trainer has an 22% strike-rate with last-time out winners, Le Breuil and Captain Chaos are fancied but the latter has done nothing of late to justify the current price (6/1).
STORM CONTROL 7/1 2PT EW
15:35 – There is a pattern today in our selections, the Skelton yard, ARDLETHEN at Carlisle and Newbury performed well in chases, setting speed-figures that should translate well to hurdling today, down in class and at a big-price, expect our selection to be tucked away mid-field and unleashed on the back-straight, coming into the race alongside the current favourite, Imperial Alcazar (9/2).
ARDLETHEN 11/1 1PT EW
Lingfield
13:25 – CORAZON ESPINADO is our biggest bet of the year, points wise, drawn incredibly well in stall 4, at the bottom of the weights, winning last week at Lingfield, when destroying the field, that performance was particularly eye-catching, if he gets out he should set a ferocious pace with Intuitive the main-threat, trained by Simon and Ed Crisford.
CORAZON ESPINADO 7/2 3PT EW
15:10 – WILL TO WIN, down in class, was last in Class 2 company, just before Christmas 2020, the price is all-wrong, he should be around 5/1 and stands out at 12/1, if he can get over a less than ideal draw, he should be challenging come the end.
WILL TO WIN 12/1 0.5PT EW
Kempton
19:20 – AMBER ISLAND in the final race of the day for us, stands out, producing consistently good speed-figures at Wolverhampton during the back-end of 2020 and first-time out in Class 2 company in 2021, drawn well, we would hope for her to be ridden a bit more positively from the off, hopefully over-turning the Hollie Doyle ridden, Dancing Feet.
AMBER ISLAND 4/1 2PT EW
Horse Racing Selections 