Monday 12 January 2021

The BHA and the Government have come out this morning to confirm that horse-racing (presently behind closed doors) is not at present due to be halted due to increasing concerns around the spread of COVID-19.

A frustrating day yesterday, 3 races of interest, playing in 2 with sadly no return but picking the winner in the race I chose not to get involved in, ah well, shows the race reading is working all the same.

I will update the P&L in the coming days.

Turning to today:

Hereford

14:20 – The market is framed by the favourite, Flagrat Delitiep who sits atop at a current price of 11/10, it is easy to see why, the Walford yard is in form with a 30% strike rate over the past month or so and Aidan Coleman is jocked-up, the handicapper further doesn’t look quite to have this one in it’s grip, hence plenty to like.

Subcontinent for Venetia Williams is of interest, whilst the yard has gone off the boil slightly, this is after all her time of year and at the prices looks too big, performing well on Soft at Bangor in November.

Kapgarry, down in class for Nigel Twiston-Davies, pulled up at Ascot in a class 2 on 19 December 2020, must have been showing something to justify the entry, preferring it Soft as opposed to really Heavy, today’s ground is listed as such and at the prices is a small play.

SUBCONTINENT 13/2 1PT EW

KAPGARRY 28/1 0.5PT EW

Wolverhampton

We have to wait until the 18:45 for another race, Class 3 or above but the All-Weather at Wolverhampton provides, not that I am complaining, still recovering from reviewing all of Saturday’s racing!

18:45 – Bangkok and Sinjari have both performed at the highest level with the former appearing in Class 1 company since Spring 2019.

They both deserve plenty of respect, however because of the support for Bangkok (evens at time of writing), Forest of Dean and Felix (the latter being something of an all-weather specialist since joining Marco Botti in December 2019) are the wrong price.

Whilst Forest of Dean is yet to run on the All-Weather (which is factored into his price), his speed-figures have been consistently above par during he recent part of his career, and although off the track for over a year, John Gosden has a 42% strike rate with those returning after a year and he’s obviously showing something to be entered into a hot-contest first time out.

Felix, steered by Hollie Doyle has ran to a solid standard on the All-Weather throughout 2020 and the two are chanced should Bangkok slip-up to capitalise.

The above selections are necessarily strong, rather the price dictates the play (as it should, we have all seen these types of races fall apart for the favourite before and whilst it would be no surprise to see Bangkok hose-up the prices of our selections are just to big to ignore).

FOREST OF DEAN 5/1 1PT WIN

FELIX 8/1 1PT WIN.

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