Good morning, first working day back for most, hence let us enjoy the return to relative normality after a busy but very different festive season, with the government promising more restrictions in the coming days, it will be interesting if racing is able to continue, with many in the BHA petitioning and reminding the government of its exemplary record thus far of providing sporting-entertainment behind closed doors.
Turning to yesterday and the Sunday review, it was good to see CROWNTHORPE the outsider of the 5, hose up at 17/2 for us and the Fahey yard in the 13:40 on the all-weather at Southwell, beating the well fancied favourite, Newbolt (who went off 11/8).
In the 13:53 at Plumpton, the market principles as feared were too good and our selections didn’t threaten to make the frame, the same cannot be said for the 14:25 where Bermeo was ridden positively by Kevin Brogan to challenge the leader and at least a frame and having done so well throughout, it was a tad disappointing to see him surrender what would have been a fine placed effort at the line, frustrating but that is racing.
Profit & Loss for the day: 7.1 points profit.
Total P&L: 14.4 points profit.
Today we have a quieter day ahead however, government restrictions permitting and weather behaving, we have a cracking week ahead with Saturday promising to be a real treat with the Lanzarote at Kempton and the rescheduled Welsh National at Chepstow.
Lingfield (A/W)
13:10 – Royal Birth at the time of writing (11:44) is the market principle, at 2/1, a winner at Lingfield before the Christmas break and a multiple winner over Course and Distance, he is up 5lbs since his win at the end of 2019, this being his highest weight since September 2019 when he was wining races in class 2 company. He is a fine servant to the well-performing Stuart Williams yard but at the price he would not be something I would be keen on following.
Ornate, beaten by Royal Birth last time out, has not had much help from the handicapper hence he would also not be of interest at the price and Watchable is also of little interest.
VERNE CASTLE is chanced at the bottom of the weights having ran to a speed figure comparative to the market principles, at the time of writing he is 8/1 however the market has moved against him on all of his prior runs, hence it may be worth waiting until closer to the off to back. I will review in 30mins or so around 12:30.
Edit: confirmed selection at 12:35
VERNE CASTLE 8/1 1PT EW
Fakenham
The rearranged New Year’s Day card is held today.
13:25 – The 4 time seeking Paricolor is up 11lbs from his first of two wins at Leicester (16 November 2020) and has won 3 in a row, last time out at Taunton on Good to Soft. He is of interest today despite being at the top of the weight as the Pipe yard remains in-form with a 33% strike rate from a good handful of runners over the Christmas period.
Dr Richard Newland trains, Foreign Secretary, another horse of interest and at the top of the weights however his performances on soft (potentially heavyish soft) are concerning, saying that, his speed figures are above and beyond anything else in the field.
The favourite, has been running in much poorer company (class 5) and was last seen 6 of 11 at Hereford in November, his speed figures are nothing to write home about and whilst he sits towards the bottom of the weights, he will need to go some today to be competitive, that being said the Bowen yard is competitive of late and he has been unlucky not to get his head in front in his previous two starts.
In a relatively shaky race, none of the principles have obvious upside, save as for their position in the weights, a chance is therefore taken on the top two in the weights, carrying their jockeys home as long as both selections lead from the front.
PARICOLOR 11/2 1PT WIN
FOREIGN SECRETARY 13/2 1PT WIN
Wolverhampton (A/W)
A 9-race card tonight for all-weather fans, with an intriguing Class 2, fillies race for us to consider, as we start the march towards AW Final’s Day.
18:20 – The Ed Walker trained, Amniarix is far to short in the market, currently priced at 5/4, I would expect this to drift towards the off with Shimmering Dawn moving towards favouritism (currently best priced 7/4) at the off.
Dancing Feet, ridden by Hollie Doyle post her engagement to Tom Marquand is of interest for an Archie Watson yard consistent around 15% S/R over the past couple of months, however with Doyle on board at the track, this rises to a near 30% strike-rate in what should be a hot contest.
Odyssey Girl last seen out on Halloween, at Newmarket on Heavy, won at 11/1 and is frankly the wrong price for the race today, having always been competitive when raced on the all-weather historically (plenty of placed efforts at good prices), providing she is good to go today.
Amber Island for David Loughane is a previous course and distance winner, winning a class 4 on 7 December 2020 at the track at 25/1, performing best off a break and with the best speed-figure recorded in the race again the current price 16/1 is too big not to get involved.
The two market principles, Amniarix and Dancing Feet hopefully shape the market for one of our 3 fancies to perform at a bigger price (certainly than they should be).
DANCING FEET 11/2 1PT EW
ODYSSEY GIRL 11/1 0.5PT EW
AMBER ISLAND 16/1 0.5PT EW
Horse Racing Selections 