Saturday Review
Ayr was cancelled yesterday, leaving only 3 selection, Flow Away was found to be the right price after all going off at 16/1 and running very much like a selection at that price, however SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT ran exactly as desired (and if you read the blog post, as wanted, with Mania, front running), the horse found more and more when asked and with a brilliant display of jumping and tactics, rolled back the years. A lovely win at 18/1 to start the year, backed into 10/1 at the off. Totterdown then treated us all to the most bonkers front running we have seen in a while, at one point holding a 40 length lead over the field, sadly to be swallowed up and tailed off.
A good day overall with a big price winner, you will also note the opener and the Tolworth went as read so that is promising moving forward.
Profit & Loss for the day: 7.3 points profit.
TOTAL P&L : 7.3
As ever on a Sunday a quieter day with only 4 races, Class 3 or above, however with some short-priced favourites, we will have a few selections today.
Plumpton
12:48 – The top 3 in the market are at the time of writing (Sunday 11:42) impossible to split in the market, the Snowden trained Thebannerkingrebel has only been seen once, beating only a singular rival , again at Plumpton, the yard is in good form and I would have expected him to be a bit shorter than the current 7/4. Up The Straight, trained by Gary Moore is the best of the remainder however at 3/1 is no bet, if it were to drift to 4s and above I would be tempted with the each-way play.
Note: at the time of editing 12:44 (4 mins before the off) the Moore trained horse has been backed in from 3s into 6/5! Clearly not a bet but someone fancies it!
13:53– The well fancied favourite, Annual Invictus has a lot going for him today, save as he is at the top of the weights, something I am always a tad wary of, Dorking lad seems the right second favourite (9/4) but my eye is drawn to ALBERT HUCKLEBUCK, trained by Chris Gordon and ridden by Richard Johnson, towards the bottom of the weights, 2nd in a Class 5 at Fontwell in October on debut that performance was of relative note and therefore in a market determined by the favourite, we are getting a tad more each-way value than you may expect.
Let’s hope the top-weight favourite struggles opening a place for something at a bigger price, with that said, Bunny Boru should not be 40/1 and nor should Henschke be 66/1 hence we are going to play triple handed in this race at small stakes at hope it falls apart for those at the top of the market.
ALBERT HUCKLEBUCK 0.75PT EW 16/1
BUNNY BORU 0.5PT EW 40/1
HENSCHKE 0.5PT EW 66/1
1425– In a wide open race I would be keen to take the favourite on, Salty Boy, Brendan Powell rides and he doesn’t have the best record over 3miles at the course. RATHLIN ROSE however, is trained by David Pipe and he has a nearly 20% success rate over 3m at the course having won here a few times, last seen out when travelling 238miles to Doncaster he was clearly fancied finishing second, his hold-up style may count against him and I would hope the jockey gets a tad more prominent on him than we have seen before but he is the wrong price at 11/1 and hence he is a selection.
Bermeo, successful in the October meeting at Cheltenham (20/1) and a runner up in the November meeting (15/2) was pulled up last time at Exeter. However this should be his ground, whilst he hates truly Heavy, Plumpton is reporting as Soft today and after his performances at HQ earlier in the season he is worth a pop in the race at 16/1 at the bottom of the weights.
RATHLIN ROSE 11/1 0.5PT EW
BERMEO 16/1 0.5PT EW
Southwell (A/W)
We move onto the flat and the all-weather at Southwell.
13:40 – The favourite has everything going for it today, Newbolt trained by Ralph Beckett (who has a 30% strike rate over this distance at the course), jocked up with Kingscote on-board (who is nigh on 20% over C&D) is a worthy consideration, but at 11/10 offers little to like. The eye is drawn to CROWNTHORPE trained by Richard Fahey who finished 3rd of 5 at Lingfield on New Year’s Eve and when Fahey brings his horses back out within 7 days, he strikes nearly 20% of the time, with a speed-figure comparative to the favourite the 17/2 on offer seems a solid each-way play.
CROWNTHORPE 17/2 1PT EW
Good luck today with your fancies.
Horse Racing Selections 