Happy New Year, with Cheltenham cancelled, I chose to ignore the first day of 2021 from a racing perspective.
The cancelled races have been picked up by Ludlow and Warwick, hence we will not have to wait long for those to be ran.
As to today, only two meetings to worry about, namely, Sandown and Ayr with the former hosting the Tolworth Novices Hurdle at 14:25 and it is in the South of England that we will begin our review.
Sandown – Saturday 2 January 2021
12:05 – The favourite, Hudson De Grugy is priced 4/9 at present, in a race I have no desire of getting involved in, the only negative of note is that the Jockey, Jamie Moore has a terrible strike rate at the course (7.76%) but with only 5 runners an the second fave, Hystery Bere looking about right, let’s leave this one.
12:40 – Another short price favourite, Stormy Ireland, last seen when finishing 9th of 10 at Cheltenham during the International Meeting and trained by the in-form Paul Nicholls is again right to sit atop of the market. I have no confidence in the second favourite, Whitehotchillifilli and 9/4 seems far to short, trained by the slightly out of form Harry Fry (last 14 days relative to where he was before around 25% strike rate), this mare would not be a horse I would expect to trouble Stormy Ireland.
Robin Gold however at 11/2 is the wrong price, too big, despite being up in class and trained Dan Skelton who continued his good form this season with a good Christmas, that being said, in a small field (only 6 runners it is not a betting opportunity.
It will be interesting to see if FLOW AWAY who is hurdling again after a go over the larger obstacles in Warwick before Christmas, is able to repeat her form last time out over hurdles where she placed 2nd of 6 on Heavy (again at Warwick), in early February of 2020.
I am going to consider the chase run as a warm-up for this and at 14/1 is the wrong price and let’s hope she is chasing home the favourite or better as it comes to the last before the long run-in at Sandown.
FLOW AWAY 14/1 – 0.5pt EW
13:15– The top 2 in the market, Destinee Royale and Evander are right where they should be, the favourite, Destinee Royale currently at 9/4 receives 11 pounds from Evander and therefore on heavy ground should prevail, for Venetia Williams who hit a rich vein over the Christmas period.
Nothing to say about any of the others, the top two should see this out at the finish.
13:50 – Ibelo, last seen at Cheltenham when beaten by the impressive Sky Pirate at the International Meeting in December is probably the right favourite after that performance (where it could be said he really bumped into one).
Moonlighter fell last time out at Newbury and is best watched today at the price, drifting from 3/1 to 7/2 (I’d expect if you were keen to back the price will be bigger at the off)
San Benedeto should not be 10/1, this will be his 4th trip to Sandown, where he has raced against Altior, Politologue and other top-class horses, therefore despite his rising age (10 now) the current price of 11/1 seems far to high at the time of typing (21:00 on Friday 1 January) – I will review in the morning as if it were to increase it could be a selection, despite the race normally preferring a front running and San Benedeto is likely to be held up.
14:25 – The Tolworth Hurdle
Harry Fry trains the favourite Metier (currently 11/8 in the market) he looks to have everything required to justify favouritism, Galice Macalo is the obvious threat, finishing second behind Benson at Sandown in early December. Shakem Uparry was of some interest but with only 8 runners and therefore 2 places doesn’t make sense as an ew play.
15:00 – These veterans races are always fun and have been a fantastic addition to the racing calendar, the top two in the market, Valtor and Crosspark should be there or thereabouts, however a chance is taken on SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT, pulled up last time out at Haydock, where he was backed into second favourite (4/1) and given weight by the market principles, the front running style of the horse should be used by the jockey, Ryan Mania to best effect, whilst I do not believe he can win the race, at 18/1 that is a potential gift of a price (especially with Betfair paying 5 places), whatever happens backing enough horses at odds far bigger than they should be will pay dividends over time.
None of the others stand-out in what should be a fun if not gruelling spectacle, here is hoping everyone gets round safe.
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 18/1 0.5pt EW
15:35 – This is an open affair for sure, the favourite could be any one of 5 runners currently towards the top of the market, however none of those have produced speed figures to really set them apart. Totterdown a regular at Sandown and with two wins at the track, shouldn’t be 12/1 (backed from 16s).
My biggest concern would be The Pink’N who has by far the best speed figure of all the horses in the race but the Seamus Mullins yard hasn’t had anything competitive in months and I would want to see some improvement in his horses before backing any of them.
At the price TOTTERDOWN is worth an each-way play in the last race, as he is as good on the ratings as any of those towards the top of the market and given a fair bit of weight, if he is on form, Fergal O’Brien might just have a big price winner in the last.
TOTTERDOWN – 12/1 O.5pt EW
Ayr – Saturday 2 January 2021
12:55 – A well fancied favourite, Reviers Lad (11/8) has not raced for 614 days, one to watch out of interest and in a small field of only 5 runners, distorts a market that I will not be getting involved in.
14:05 – Another small field, 6 runners, Evander is declared at both here and Sandown, he would be best advised to take-up the Sandown entry as this race has plenty of in-form fancies. Flowery and Clan Legend are both of interest, the latter having won last time out at Aintree with the former running well at Ayr on Halloween after a 244 day break, earlier in the year Flowery followed up after a 200+ day break with a win a couple of months later (on Heavy).
At the prices they are both worth backing and hoping Evander takes up his declaration at Sandown and/or fails to back-up his win at Doncaster.
FLOWERY – 9/2 1pt win
CLAN LEGEND – 6/1 1pt win
14:40 – Illegal Model sits atop of the market (5/2) and is a fair favourite and has recorded the best speed figures by far out of any of the competitors, by way of example, its rival in the betting Big Penny (10/3) has a lot to find and would not be a horse I would consider for the race.
I am keen however on the French horse, Hastrubal who sits at the bottom of the weights (10.0) and whilst not having show much of late, the current price 11/1 seems to high although he could well be out paced by many of these, however the handicapper has been kind and out of the older horses I would hope he can run into a place (keep an eye on Justatenner as well who should out-run his odds).
HASTRUBAL – 11/1 – 0.5pt EW
15:15 – The favourite Takingrisks down in class and trained by the in-form Nicky Richards should take this. Manetti however is the wrong price in this race, sitting at the bottom of the weights, he is worth a small play, in particular as the Trainer/Jockey angle (N Alexander and Brian Hughes respectively has worked out well historically 55% strike-rate) and having last been seen over hurdles at the end of November, the Trainer has a 22% strike rate when his horses are then switched back to chasing for their next race.
MANETTI – 15/2 0.5pt EW
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